3G networks will power 44 percent of mobile devices and connections, while 4G will support 26 percent of connections by 2019.
3G is expected to overtake 2G as the top cellular technology, based on connection share, by 2017, said Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2014 to 2019.
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The report said 26 percent of all devices and connections will be 4G capable by 2019.
The number of 4G connections will grow 18-fold to 3 billion by 2019 from 459 million in 2014.
4G traffic
4G connections will account for 68 percent of total mobile data traffic by 2019 against 40 percent in 2014, said Cisco.
The average 4G connection will generate 5.5 GB of mobile data traffic per month by 2019 against 2.2 GB in 2014. This indicates that the mobile data traffic on 4G network will be 5.3X higher than the 1.04 GB/month for the average non-4G connection.
Mobile data traffic — with computing / multi-media capabilities and a minimum of 3G connectivity — is expected to rise to 97 percent by 2019 from 88 percent in 2014.
Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast projects that mobile data traffic will reach an annual run rate of 292 exabytes by 2019 from 30 exabytes in 2014.
Mobile traffic growth will outpace global fixed traffic growth by a factor of three from 2014 to 2019.
There will be 5.2 billion mobile users by 2019 against 4.3 billion in 2014. In 2014, nearly 59 percent of the world’s population (7.2 billion people) was comprised of mobile users; by 2019, more than 69 percent of the world’s population (7.6 billion people) will be mobile users.
Cisco said there will be nearly 11.5 billion mobile-ready devices / connections, including 8.3 billion personal mobile devices and 3.2 billion M2M connections by 2019 against 7.4 billion total mobile-ready devices and M2M connections in 2014.
Average global mobile network speeds will increase 2.4 fold to 4.0 Mbps in 2019 from 1.7 Mbps in 2014.
Mobile video will represent 72 percent of global mobile data traffic by 2019 against 55 percent in 2014.
The number of wearable devices will grow five-fold to 578 million by 2019 from 109 million in 2014, with the majority of devices anticipated in North America and Asia Pacific.
This is expected to fuel 18-fold growth in mobile traffic from wearable devices between 2014 and 2019, with most of it channeled through smartphones.
In 2014, the average wearable device generated 6X more traffic per month than a basic handset (wearables = 141 MBs mobile traffic/month vs. basic handsets = 22 MBs mobile traffic/month).
In 2014, the average M2M module generated three-times more traffic per month than a basic handset (M2M = 70 MB of mobile traffic/month vs. basic handsets = 22 MB of mobile traffic/month).
Wi-Fi offload
In 2014, 46 percent of total mobile data traffic was offloaded; by 2019, 54 percent of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded.
Without offload, the 2014 – 2019 global mobile data traffic compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for global mobile data traffic would be significantly higher (65 percent instead of 57 percent).
By 2017, VoWi-Fi traffic (10.8 PB/year) will exceed VoLTE traffic (10.7 PB/year).
By 2018, VoWi-Fi will exceed VoLTE in the number of minutes used per year.
By 2019, VoWi-Fi minutes of use will account for more than half — 53 percent — of all mobile IP voice traffic.
By 2019, the number of Wi-Fi-capable tablets and PCs (1.9 billion) will be nearly 3.5-times the number of cellular-capable tablets and PCs (542 million).
Baburajan K
[email protected]
