5G network infrastructure revenue is expected to drop 10% of the forecasted $2.1 billion in 2020 due to spread of coronavirus epidemic, according to the latest tech report from ABI Research.
ABI Research expects that handset sales may drop by 30 percent in the first half of 2020. Apple, Huawei, and Samsung will see revenues stagnating, at least in the first half of the year.
Telecoms operator revenue is expected to fall by 3.4 percent in 2020, says Analysis Mason. Operator Capex is likely to fall 3.7 percent in 2020 because of constraints in the ability to build and because of disruption to supply chains.
The drop is operator Capex will negatively impact telecom network makers such as Cisco, Nokia, Ericsson, Huawei, ZTE, Samsung, among others.
Recently GSA said 380 operators are investing in 5G networks in the form of tests, trials, pilots, planned and actual deployments. 88 operators have announced that they have deployed 3GPP-compliant 5G technology in their networks.
GSA counts 73 operators in 41 countries that have launched one or more 3GPP-compliant commercial 5G services with smart phones / 5G routers. There are 66 5G mobile services and 35 5G FWA or home broadband services.
Despite the discussion on OpenRAN and open networks, most advanced 5G networks still rely on Tier One infrastructure vendors and their supply chain has been disrupted. The shortages of component manufacturing and/or network workforce deployment, such as integration engineers, are the main reasons of this disruption.
“The virus outbreak will likely delay the deployment of advanced 5G NR systems, including Massive Multiple Input, Multiple Output (MIMO) and active antennas that several operators have already started deploying,” said Jiancao Hou, senior analyst at ABI Research.
This may mean that operators that have already deployed a significant number of base stations will be in a better position to become early adopters and benefit from an earlier transition from previous generations to 5G. 5G radio deployments will be delayed further due to geopolitical constraints and COVID-19.
The effects of the virus outbreak will likely accelerate more innovative use cases and services. “Considering a 5G Ultra-Reliable Low-Latency Communications (URLLC) scenario, if surgery and health monitoring can be done remotely, the doctor will not need to physically meet the patient infected with the virus.”