5G mobile network services in the mid-band spectrum range could add more than $610 billion to global GDP by 2030, GSMA research finds.
The new economic forecast predicts that by 2030, 5G spectrum in the 1-7 GHz mid-band range will drive nearly 65 percent of the overall $960 billion socio-economic value created by 5G.
“Delivering on the 5G promise will require action from governments and industry to make enough mid-band spectrum available. An average of 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum is needed, and there is work to get there,” said the GSMA’s Head of Spectrum, Luciana Camargos.
5G is expected to yield more than $960 billion in additional GDP value-add to the global economy, or approximately 0.70 percent of global GDP forecast, in 2030.
Mid-band 5G will account for an uplift of more than $610 billion to global GDP in 2030 (approximately 65 percent of the total 5G benefit).
Low-band 5G is expected to account for $130 billion (14 percent of the total 5G benefit).
High-band 5G adds another $220 billion of GDP uplift (23 percent of the total 5G benefit).
The study said up to $360 billion of GDP growth could be lost due to insufficient spectrum. If spectrum is constrained to current levels as demand for services grows, increased network congestion and deployment costs will stifle 5G. Network quality and speed will suffer, limiting 5G adoption and its economic impact.
75 percent of the benefits of mid-band 5G will be through the core 5G use cases of enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) and fixed wireless access (FWA) with fibre-like speeds.
Services, including healthcare and education, and manufacturing are expected to yield the highest portion of the economic benefit, with the manufacturing sector accounting for almost 40 percent of the growth. Public administration, including smart cities, is also expected to impact the economy significantly.
CIS and Latin America will lead with over 0.5 percent of GDP generated by mid-band 5G in 2030. Meanwhile, Sub-Saharan Africa and Europe will see 0.38 percent in GDP growth, and North America with 0.36 percent in GDP growth.
Early adopter 5G markets in Asia Pacific, the Americas, and Europe will account for the most significant share of total global contribution to GDP. The biggest economies and populations will have the largest impact, with East Asia and the Pacific forecast to contribute $218 billion to global GDP.
GSMA, as per recommendations, suggested Government to make an average of 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum available for licensed 5G. The most developed communications markets are starting to move closer to this goal, but there is still a shortfall of 1 GHz in many cases.
Fulfilling mid-band needs in harmonised ranges including 3.5 GHz, 4.8 GHz, and 6 GHz will deliver economies of scale and lower broadband costs, GSMA said.
By 2030, an average of 2 GHz of additional spectrum will be needed in mid-bands to deliver 5G services at a performance consistent with the ITU’s IMT-2020 (5G) requirements, GSMA said in a news statement.