Forecast on revenue of Vietnam telecom market

Telecom services revenue in Vietnam is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 4.7 percent during 2023-2028, led by mobile data and fixed broadband segments, according to GlobalData.
Vietnam telecom revenue forecastMobile voice service revenue in Vietnam will drop during the forecast period, due to decline in circuit-switched subscriptions and decrease in mobile voice service ARPU, with users increasingly shifting to OTT communication platforms.

Mobile data service revenue in Vietnam will increase at a CAGR of 12 percent, driven by growth in the number of mobile internet subscriptions, especially increasing adoption of 4G services, projected rise in 5G subscriptions, and increase in mobile data ARPU.

4G services accounted for a majority share of the overall mobile subscriptions in 2023 in Vietnam and will remain the leading mobile technology through 2028 thanks to the expansion of 4G/LTE network in the country.

5G subscriptions in Vietnam will increase at a faster pace over the forecast period, driven by the growing availability and demand for high-speed connectivity services with telcos’ plans for 5G network rollouts and the government’s 5G coverage plans. For instance, the government plans to achieve nationwide 5G coverage by 2030.

Fixed voice service revenue in Vietnam will decline, due to losses in circuit-switched subscriptions and declining fixed voice ARPU. Fixed broadband service revenue in Vietnam will grow at a CAGR of 2.7 percent over 2023-2028 period, driven by the steady growth in fiber broadband subscriptions, on the back of expanding fiber broadband network coverage.

Demand for high-speed broadband connectivity in Vietnam and the expansion of fiber-optic network infrastructure by the government will support fiber broadband subscriptions’ growth. The government of Vietnam plans to expand fiber internet infrastructure to 80 percent of households and 100 percent of communities by the end of 2025.

Viettel led the mobile services segment in Vietnam, in terms of the number of subscriptions in 2023 and will continue to hold the top position throughout the forecast period, thanks to its focus on LTE/4G/5G network expansions. Viettel aims for a nationwide 5G coverage by 2024.

VNPT topped the fixed voice and fixed broadband segments in Vietnam. In the fixed broadband segment, VNPT will maintain its leadership through to 2028, supported by its strong position in the FTTH segment and focus on offering discounted multiplay bundles, combining fixed broadband, mobile, and pay-TV services.