TrendForce’s latest analysis of the TV market unveils a challenging landscape in 2023, marked by a 2.1 percent year-over-year decline in global TV shipments, amounting to 197 million units. While there was some quarterly growth observed, the traditional peak season in Q4 reported the lowest growth rate in nearly a decade, emphasizing a stagnant market.
The research highlighted several factors contributing to this downturn. Despite a decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Europe and the US, constrained consumer budgets persisted due to a high-interest-rate environment. Additionally, China’s real estate bubble suppressed TV demand, while a significant increase in TV panel prices prompted brands to curtail promotional events, impacting overall shipments.
Notable shifts were observed in market shares among top brands. Samsung Electronics retained its lead despite a 9.8 percent YoY decrease in shipments, primarily affected by challenges in shipping mid to high-end products. However, their QD OLED TVs experienced a remarkable 153 percent surge in shipments, boosting Samsung’s OLED TV market share to 16.6 percent.
Chinese brands, Hisense and TCL, emerged as winners, witnessing significant shipment increases of 12.4 percent and 16.3 percent YoY, respectively, leveraging low-cost export strategies and localized production. Conversely, LG Electronics faced a downturn in OLED TV sales, resulting in a 7.4 percent decrease in overall shipments.
Looking ahead to 2024, TV manufacturers aim to enhance profitability by prioritizing larger-sized products and phasing out less profitable models. Anticipated events like the Paris Olympics and UEFA Euro 2024 might support a marginal 0.2 percent growth in global TV shipments.
However, challenges loom as panel prices are expected to remain high, constraining growth for generic brands and posing a risk to increased shipments. Moreover, geopolitical tensions or unforeseen economic downturns could further disrupt the market, potentially leading to a decline in total TV shipments for 2024.
The uncertainty surrounding consumer habits, economic conditions, and panel pricing casts a shadow over the immediate future of the TV market, making predictions for 2024 a complex and variable prospect.