Telecom Lead Asia: Cisco said India is expected to have
the highest IP traffic growth rate with a 62 percent CAGR from 2011 to 2016.
In a second-place tie, Brazil and South Africa both have
53 percent CAGRs over the forecast period.
Annual global IP traffic is likely to grow to 1.3
zettabytes by 2016.
The projected increase of global IP traffic between 2015
and 2016 is more than 330 exabytes, which is almost equal to IP traffic
generated in 2011 (369 exabytes).
Growth in devices, Internet users, faster broadband
speed, more video and WiFi will drive the growth.
There will be nearly 18.9 billion network connections by
2016 — almost 2.5 connections for each person on earth, — compared with 10.3
billion in 2011.
By 2016, there are expected to be 3.4 billion Internet
users — about 45 percent of the world’s projected population according to
United Nations estimates.
The average fixed broadband speed is expected to increase
nearly fourfold, from 9 megabits per second (Mbps) in 2011 to 34 Mbps in 2016.
By 2016, 1.2 million video minutes — the equivalent of
833 days (or over two years) — would travel the Internet every second.
Over half of the world’s Internet traffic is expected to
come from Wi-Fi connections by 2016.
“Each of us increasingly connects to the network via
multiple devices in our always-on connected lifestyles. Whether by video phone
calls, movies on tablets, web-enabled TVs, or desktop video conferencing, the
sum of our actions not only creates demand for zettabytes of bandwidth, but
also dramatically changes the network requirements needed to deliver on the
expectations of this new normal,” said Suraj Shetty, vice president of
product and solutions marketing, Cisco.
By 2016, the Asia Pacific region is forecast to generate
the most IP traffic (40.5 exabytes per month), maintaining the top spot over North
America (27.5 exabytes per month), which generated the second most amount of
traffic.
The fastest-growing IP-traffic regions for the forecast
period (2011-2016) are the Middle East and Africa (58 percent compound annual
growth rate, for 10-fold growth), and Latin America (49 percent CAGR, sevenfold
growth).
By 2016, the highest traffic-generating countries will be
the United States (22 exabytes per month) and China (12 exabytes per month).
There are expected to be 1.5 billion Internet video users
by 2016, up from 792 million Internet video users in 2011.
By 2016, the Index forecasts there will be nearly 18.9
billion network connections — almost 2.5 connections for each person on earth.
In 2011, PCs generated 94 percent of consumer Internet
traffic. This contribution is expected to fall to 81 percent by 2016.
By 2016, TVs are expected to account for over 6 percent
of global consumer Internet traffic (up from 4 percent in 2011), and 18 percent
of Internet video traffic (up from 7 percent in 2011) — demonstrating the
impact of Web-enabled TVs as a viable online option for many consumers.
There will be 8 billion IPv6-capable fixed and mobile
devices in 2016, up from 1 billion in 2011.
Globally, 40 percent of all fixed and mobile networked
devices will be IPv6-capable in 2016, up from 10 percent in 2011.
Global advanced video traffic, including
three-dimensional (3-D) and high-definition TV (HDTV), is projected to increase
five times between 2011 and 2016.
Mobile Internet data traffic is forecast to increase 18
times from 2011 to 2016, to 10.8 exabytes per month (or 130 exabytes annually).
By 2016, global peer-to-peer traffic is projected to
account for 54 percent of global consumer Internet file sharing traffic, down
from 77 percent in 2011. On a quantity basis, however, the amount of
peer-to-peer traffic is expected to increase from a rate of 4.6 exabytes per
month in 2011 to 10 exabytes per month by 2016.
Business IP video conferencing is projected to grow
sixfold over the forecast period, growing more than two times as fast as
overall business IP traffic, at a CAGR of 42 percent from 2011 to 2016.
Globally, there were 1.7 billion residential Internet
users with fixed Internet access in 2011; the index forecasts there will be 2.3
billion residential Internet users with fixed Internet access by 2016.
Digital TV is expected to be the fastest-growing digital
television service, going from 694 million subscribers in 2011 to 1.3 billion
subscribers in 2016.
Globally, voice over IP (VoIP) is projected to be the
fastest-growing residential Internet service, going from 560 million users in
2011 to 928 million users in 2016.
Online Music is expected to be the most highly penetrated
residential Internet service — in 2011 there were 1.1 billion users (63
percent of residential Internet users); in 2016 there are forecast to be 1.8
billion users (79 percent of residential Internet users).
Mobile consumers are forecast to grow from 3.7 billion in
2011 to 4.5 billion by 2016.
Globally, mobile video is projected to be the
fastest-growing consumer mobile service, going from 271 million users in 2011
to 1.6 billion users in 2016.
Consumer SMS will be the most highly penetrated consumer
mobile service — in 2011, there were 2.8 billion users (74 percent of consumer
mobile users), increasing to 4.1 billion users (90 percent of consumer mobile
users) by 2016.
Business Internet users are projected to grow from 1.6
billion in 2011 to 2.3 billion by 2016.
Globally, desktop videoconferencing is projected to be
the fastest-growing service, with 36.4 million users in 2011, increasing to
218.9 million users in 2016.
Business mobile location-based services (LBS) are
forecast to be the fastest-growing business mobile service, with 27 million
users in 2011, increasing to 158 million users by 2016.
