Telecom Lead Middle East: Iran’s mobile market, by far
the largest segment of the country’s telecoms industry, exhibited considerably
slower growth in 2011 compared with previous years, which reflects the market’s
maturity, with the penetration rate just shy of 100 percent at the end of the
year, according to BMI Iran Telecommunications Report.
Research and Markets said that the growth and market’s maturity led Business
Monitor International (BMI) to revise down forecasts last quarter, which it
holds in the Q212 update on Iran’s telecommunications market.
The country’s second largest mobile operator, MTN
Irancell, is still the only company to give any indication of how the market is
progressing. The company’s latest operational data for Q311 was stronger than
Q211, but growth rates were still weak overall.
The report noted that Iran’s mobile market would slow
inevitably, as major cities approach saturation and growth prospects are more
limited to rural areas that are harder to reach and offer more limited revenue.
BMI’s mobile subscriber forecast for Iran expects the
mobile sector expanding by over 8 percent in 2012, with the mobile customer
base forecast to grow to 80.85mn by the end of the year. BMI continues to
expect the mobile market to cross the 100 percent penetration threshold in
early 2012, adding only 5pps to the penetration rate in the year.
Nevertheless, it should be remembered that the bulk of
mobile subscriptions in Iran are made up of prepaid users. Many of these are
understood to be inactive and this means actual penetration rates are almost
certainly much lower than the forecast suggests, hence BMI’s forecasts for
continued growth.
Last year,
BMI through its Iran Telecommunications Report revealed that at the end of 2010,
there were a total of 67.5 million subscribers in Iran, equivalent to a
penetration rate of 91 percent.
