Telecom Lead Asia: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast 2012-2017 says India will have the highest IP traffic growth rate with 44 percent CAGR from 2012 – 2017.
Second is Indonesia with 42 percent CAGR and third is South Africa with 31 percent CAGR over the forecast period.
Cisco VNI forecast says global Internet protocol (IP) traffic will grow three-fold between 2012 and 2017.
Global IP traffic (fixed and mobile) is expected to reach an annual run rate of 1.4 zettabytes — more than a trillion gigabytes per year — by 2017.
On a monthly basis, global IP traffic is expected to reach nearly 121 exabytes per month by 2017, up from about 44 exabytes per month in 2012.
By 2017, there will be about 3.6 billion Internet users — more than 48 percent of the world’s projected population (7.6 billion).
In 2012, there were 2.3 billion Internet users — about 32 percent of the world’s population (7.2 billion).
By 2017, there will be more than 19 billion global network connections (fixed/mobile personal devices, M2M connections, et al.), up from about 12 billion connections in 2012.
Globally, the average fixed broadband speed will increase 3.5-fold from 2012 – 2017, from 11.3 Mbps to 39 Mbps.
Globally, the average fixed broadband speed grew 30 percent from 2011 – 2012, from 8.7 Mbps to 11.3 Mbps.
Global network users will generate 3 trillion Internet video minutes per month, that is 6 million years of video per month, or 1.2 million video minutes every second or more than two years worth of video every second.
Globally, there will be nearly 2 billion Internet video users (excluding mobile-only) by 2017, up from 1 billion Internet video users in 2012.
In 2012, 26 percent of Internet traffic originated with non-PC devices, but by 2017 the non-PC share of Internet traffic will grow to 49 percent. PC-originated traffic will grow at a 14 percent CAGR, while other devices/connections will have higher traffic growth rates over the forecast period — TVs (24 percent), tablets (104 percent), smartphones (79 percent), and machine-to-machine (M2M) modules (82 percent).
Cisco VNI forecast says nearly half of the world’s population will have network and Internet access by 2017. The average Internet household (globally) will generate 74.5 gigabytes per month. By comparison, in 2012, the average Internet household generated 31.6 gigabytes of traffic per month.
Globally, M2M connections will grow three-fold from two billion in 2012 to six billion by 2017. Annual global M2M IP traffic will grow 20-fold over this same period — from 197 petabytes in 2012 (0.5 percent of global IP traffic) to 3.9 exabytes by 2017 (3 percent of global IP traffic).
Applications such as video surveillance, smart meters, asset/package tracking, chipped pets/livestock, digital health monitors and a host of other next-generation M2M services are driving this growth.
Asia-Pacific (APAC) will generate the most IP traffic by 2017 (43.4 exabytes/month), maintaining its leadership from last year.
The Middle East and Africa will continue to be the fastest growing IP traffic region from 2012 – 2017 (5-fold growth, 38 percent CAGR over the forecast period); MEA was the fastest growing region last year as well (10-fold growth, 57 percent CAGR for the 2011 – 2016 forecast period) in this category.
By 2017, the highest traffic-generating countries will be the United States (37 exabytes per month) and China (18 exabytes per month).
Globally, there will be nearly 2 billion Internet video users (excluding mobile-only) by 2017, up from 1 billion Internet video users in 2012.
Internet video-to-TV traffic will increase nearly 5-fold between 2012 (1.3 exabytes per month) and 2017 (6.5 exabytes per month).
By 2017, 3D and HD Internet video will comprise 63 percent of consumer Internet video traffic.
Advanced consumer Internet video (3D and HD) will increase 4-fold between 2012 and 2017.
VoD traffic will increase 3-fold between 2012 and 2017.
Peer-to-peer (P2P) traffic will decline at a CAGR of -9 percent, while web-based and other file sharing traffic will grow at CAGR of 17 percent from 2012 – 2017.
By 2017, global P2P traffic will be 65 percent of global consumer Internet file sharing traffic, down from 85 percent in 2012.
Overall business IP traffic, which includes Internet, backup, VoIP, etc., will nearly triple between 2012 and 2017.
In 2012, business IP traffic represented 20 percent of monthly total global IP traffic (consumer IP traffic represented 80 percent of monthly total global IP traffic).
By 2017, business IP traffic will represent 18 percent of monthly total global IP traffic (consumer IP traffic will represent 82 percent of monthly total global IP traffic).
Business Internet video traffic will from 5.3-fold from 2012 to 2017.
Business Internet video traffic grew 52 percent in 2012.
Video will account for 58 percent of all business Internet traffic in 2017, up from 31 percent in 2012, according to Cisco VNI forecast.
