The global smartphone market is expected to return to growth during the holiday quarter this year with 2.4 percent growth in 4Q20, followed by 4.4 percent growth in 2021.
The rebound in smartphone market will be fueled by an impressively quick supply chain recovery as well as significant incentives from both OEMs and channels on new 5G products, IDC forecast said.
IDC expects the global market to grow each year through 2024 with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.3 percent.
Despite concerns around weakness in 5G demand, smartphone volumes exceeded the forecast in 3Q20 and supply-side momentum headed into the holiday quarter and 2021 remains strong, said Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers.
IDC expects 5G smartphone shipments to reach close to 10 percent of global volume in 2020 and grow to 29 percent in 2024.
Despite concerns about the lack of demand for 5G, the wheels are in motion to transition the mobile industry to the latest network technology. A key factor to accomplish this will be getting the cost of 5G hardware close to or on par with 4G phones.
IDC expects worldwide 5G ASPs to drop 25 percent in 2020 to $611 and to $453 in 2024.
Competitive pricing will play an integral role in shaping 5G development. Promotions and more affordable 5G devices from major smartphone vendors are expected to partially offset the impact in the near term, said Sangeetika Srivastava, senior analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers.