5G smartphone will reach 280 mn in 2020: Canalys

5G smartphone shipments will reach nearly 280 million in 2020 with Greater accounting for 62 percent, followed by North America and EMEA.
5G smartphone sales forecast for 2020
5G smartphone shipment is forecast to reach 172 million in 2020 and 305 million in 2021 in Greater China.

5G smartphone shipment is forecast to reach 42 million in 2020 and 92 million in 2021 in North America.

5G smartphone shipment is forecast to reach 172 million in 2020 and 305 million in 2021 in Greater China.

5G smartphone shipment is forecast to reach 31 million in 2020 and 76 million in 2021 in Europe, Middle East and Africa.

5G smartphone shipment is forecast to reach 29 million in 2020 and 57 million in 2021 in Asia Pacific (excluding Greater China).

5G smartphone shipment is forecast to reach 3 million in 2020 and 13 million in 2021 in Latin America.

Low cost 5G phones

Realme launched its V3 in September, the first sub-US$150 (RMB999) 5G smartphone in China.

“This milestone has arrived three months earlier than expected and will have a significant ripple effect in other regions, such as Southeast Asia, EMEA, and even Latin America where Chinese vendors are expanding,” said Canalys Analyst Shengtao Jin.

“The economies of scale provided by the China market will allow vendors to launch more affordable 5G smartphones in other countries, even if 5G infrastructure in those markets is not fully ready.”

It is expected that by 2021, nearly 60 percent of 5G smartphone shipments in China will be cheaper than US$400, while 5G penetration in China will reach 83 percent in the next 12 months.

Europe will be the third largest region behind Greater China and North America in terms of 5G penetration in 2020 and 2021.

Fairly aggressively-priced 5G devices available in Europe include Motorola G 5G Plus, and the Xiaomi Mi 10 Lite 5G.

Huawei was long-expected to play a major role in 5G smartphone adoption, and other brands such as Xiaomi, Oppo and TCL are already positioning themselves to fill any vacuum.

ASP of 5G in Europe is expected to come down, considering Apple and Samsung’s share in this region, reaching at US$765 in 2021 and US$477 in 2024.

Overall smartphone volumes are projected to decline 10.7 percent in 2020, Canalys projects. Overall smartphone business is expected to grow at 9.9 percent in 2021, with the market to exceed 1.3 billion units.

“Smartphone shipments are rebounding rapidly in many markets ahead of the economic and retail consumption recovery,” said Canalys Senior Analyst, Ben Stanton.