Canalys insights and forecasts on Apple’s Vision Pro

Apple’s Vision Pro and its associated device lineup are projected to amass a user base of 20 million within five years of its launch in 2024, according to Canalys forecast.
Canalys forecasts on Apple Vision ProApple said Apple Vision Pro is its spatial computer for customers. Apple Vision Pro comes with visionOS, the world’s first spatial operating system. Vision Pro lets users interact with digital content in a way that feels like it is physically present in their space. The retail price of Apple Vision Pro is $3,499 in the United States.

Apple can achieve success in a new market despite entering late, solidifying its dominance in yet another category. Rather than attempting to create an entirely new realm, Apple has intelligently focused on enhancing the goggles as a superior MacBook, catering to the desires and requirements of its next generation of customers. To put this in perspective, the anticipated 20 million users by the end of the fifth year represent 15 percent of the MacBook’s existing user base (Canalys estimates 127 million MacBook users by the end of 2022) and a mere 2 percent of the iPhone’s user base.

The release of the Vision Pro headset is a crucial move for Apple, as it allows the company to break away from its core revenue generators—the iPhone, iPad, and Mac. This launch serves as a platform to exhibit innovation, reignite consumer interest in smart devices, and ultimately drive higher levels of revenue and profit.

Similar to Apple’s products like the iPod and iPad, the initial generation of Vision Pro is expected to outshine its competitors in terms of design, user experience, and pricing. With limited production quantities, it is anticipated to quickly sell out, primarily due to preorders from Apple’s devoted fan base and affluent customers in the United States.

The triumph of the first generation will provide Apple and its supply chain with valuable feedback for product enhancements. Simultaneously, industry players will increase their investments, leading to cost-efficient solutions that will enhance Apple’s profit margin on the device. In the second and third years, the second-generation Vision Pro is likely to enter the market, experiencing substantial growth from a modest starting point. As the user base steadily expands, establishing a new computing platform and distribution channel, annual shipments are projected to exceed 10 million units in the fourth and fifth years, equating to approximately 1 percent of the current iPhone user base.
Apple Vision ProThe Vision Pro headset represents Apple’s next-generation innovation, showcasing advanced technology that surpasses the constraints imposed by form factor or original use cases of existing devices. Notably, Apple enjoys the advantage of utilizing its in-house M series processors, ensuring optimal performance, which most headset vendors do not possess.

Apple has yet to address two significant aspects: AI and the metaverse. Although Apple may not be actively interested in creating or developing the metaverse, the future of virtual reality seems to be heading in that direction. On the other hand, Apple’s cautious approach to utilizing AI is more focused on creating consumer-centric tools.

However, this approach gives the market the impression that Apple is not at the forefront of deploying generative AI features actively, which could benefit its users within the Apple ecosystem. By incorporating generative AI alongside the Vision Pro, Apple could potentially harness a powerful tool. Failing to address generative AI would be a missed opportunity, especially after the initial launch of the Vision Pro.

Despite its high price and the perception that it primarily targets creators and businesses, the Vision Pro remains a device that prioritizes consumers. The key selling point for early adopters, who heavily rely on Apple’s ecosystem for their daily lives encompassing work and play, will likely be the visionOS. The Vision Pro is expected to be in high demand among executives (CxOs) who desire the ability to work on large spreadsheets in their hotel rooms or experience a simulated movie theater while traveling on a plane.

Apple stands out as one of the few smart device vendors that not only manufactures but also distributes content through its first-party stores and services. The company is well-versed in creating proprietary formats that work seamlessly with its ecosystem devices, leading to unique user experiences. Since the Vision Pro serves as both a consumer consumption and productivity device, Apple must rely on its existing ecosystem to generate use cases that are distinctively tailored to it.