Gartner forecasts 1.9% growth in device shipments for 2024

Gartner has released its device shipment forecast, predicting a 1.9 percent increase in the global device market in 2024. The total number of devices being shipped will reach 1.674 billion units this year.

Lenovo Miix 630 PC

This positive outlook follows two years of significant declines in the demand for devices such as PCs, mobile phones, and tablets.

Device shipment — PCs, tablets, and phones — will grow 4.8 percent to 1.754 billion in 2025, Gartner said.

PC Market Recovery Driven by Business Upgrades

According to Ranjit Atwal, Senior Director Analyst at Gartner, the growth in the PC market (encompassing laptops and desktops) will be spearheaded by business-driven PC upgrades. These upgrades are largely motivated by the adoption of Microsoft Windows 1.

The introduction of new components, such as neural processing units, is expected to enhance AI functionalities and generate renewed interest in PCs, particularly with ARM-enabled Microsoft Copilot+ PCs. However, Atwal cautioned that these innovations alone may not be sufficient to drive a substantial increase in demand.

Market Segment Projections

The PC market is projected to grow by 1.9 percent in 2024, a recovery from the 14.7 percent decline experienced in 2023. PC shipment will reach 246.850 million in 2024 vs 266.403 million in 2025.

The mobile phone market is expected to see a 2.2 percent improvement in 2024 after an 8.2 percent decline in 2023. Within this segment, smartphones are forecasted to grow by 2.5 percent, reaching 1.214 billion units in 2024 and continuing to increase by 4.8 percent in 2025.

Mobile phone shipment will reach 1.3 billion in 2024 vs 1.36 billion in 2025.

Tablet shipment will reach 128.998 million in 2024 vs 127.788 million in 2025.

AI-enabled PCs and GenAI smartphones are anticipated to reach a combined total of 295 million units by the end of 2024. Specifically, 240 million GenAI smartphones and 54.5 million AI PCs are expected to be shipped within the year.

AI Integration in Enterprise PCs

A significant shift is forecasted in enterprise PC purchases, with projections indicating that by the end of 2026, 100 percent of enterprise PC purchases will be AI-enabled PCs, a steep increase from less than 5 percent in 2023. This trend underscores the growing importance of AI capabilities in business environments and the rapid integration of advanced technologies into everyday business operations.

Conclusion

The device shipment market is poised for a modest recovery in 2024, driven by improvements in both the PC and mobile phone markets. While innovations in AI and neural processing units are set to enhance device functionalities, the overall demand growth remains a cautious yet optimistic forecast. As businesses continue to upgrade their systems and integrate AI capabilities, the landscape of device usage and requirements is expected to evolve significantly.

Baburajan Kizhakedath

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