Telecom Lead India: Microsoft Windows will be the fastest-growing operating system (OS) in terms of number of shipments in the next 5 years, growing from 11 million units in 2011 to 136 million units by 2017.
Analysys Mason says Windows smartphones will account for 9 percent of the world’s smartphone shipments in 2017, compared to Apple’s 23 percent and Android’s 58 percent.
Android smartphones will account for 58 percent of smartphone shipments by the end of 2013, but will then stagnate and maintain that level of market share for the next 4 years, largely because of a lack of other platforms from which to capture additional market share.
“Having a third significant OS player like Windows in the smartphone market would benefit mobile operators because it would reduce Apple’s and Google’s control over the market,” said Ronan de Renesse, author of the report and Principal Analyst for the Mobile Broadband and Devices research program.
Smartphone upgrades will drive three out of every four smartphone purchases by 2017, where today it is currently less than half.
“This will create a significant strategy shift for stakeholders. Operators will have to increase the value of smartphone contracts by offering early handset upgrades and larger data allowances to retain customers, and handset vendors will have to develop stronger app and content ecosystems (as Apple has done) in order to increase loyalty,” De Renesse added.
Smartphone connections will grow nearly threefold in the next 5 years to reach 3.4 billion in 2017.
Smartphone shipments will rise from 700 million in 2012 (41.2 percent share of total handset shipments) to 1.37 billion by the end of 2017 (70 percent share of total handset shipments).
Rate of growth in the rate of new smartphone connections will significantly decline – from 39 percent in 2011, to 29 percent in 2012. In 2013, this growth rate will decline further to 20 percent.
Vendors with their own content and multi-device ecosystems such as Apple, Samsung and Sony Mobile or those with a strong presence in emerging markets such as Huawei and ZTE will maintain or increase their market share at the expense of others.
Chinese manufacturers Huawei and ZTE will have a combined market share of 22.2 percent of smartphone shipments in 2017, up from 7 percent in 2011.
Smartphones will be contributing more than 80 percent of 4G connections in developed markets by the end of 2017.
Japan, South Korea and the USA lead smartphone-based 4G growth globally, and together account for 77 percent of 4G smartphone connections. Western Europe is expected to catch up by the end of 2013 when countries such as France, Italy, Spain and the UK further deploy their 4G networks.