Removeable SIM card shipments will decline from 4.36 billion in 2021 to 3.93 billion in 2022 as a result of chipset shortage.

ABI Research does not forecast a return to pre-COVID SIM card shipment levels for the removable form factor due to other market challenges, including a continued reduction in SIM card replacement rates and the forthcoming eSIM growth, Phil Sealy, Telco Cybersecurity Research Director at ABI Research, said.

The increase in smartphone average selling prices (ASP) are also negatively affecting removable SIM card churn rates as device contracts are lengthened to spread the cost of higher priced smartphones over a longer period of time, ABI Research said in its report released on Thursday.

Despite significant levels of eSIM devices being available within the market today, the use of dual SIM devices, combining eSIM with a traditional removeable SIM functionality, has limited the impact on the removeable market so far.

The market for removeable SIMs will only marginally be touched by the eSIM over the next two years, due to a continuation of dual SIM device issuance (encompassing a removeable SIM slot and eSIM). However, with strong rumors circulating around the launch of an eSIM only Apple device, a higher level of impact should be expected from 2023/2024 onwards.

The recent Gartner report said global smartphone sales (and NOT shipment) grew 6 percent in 2021 following a 12.5 percent decline in 2020.

Component shortages, production disruption and low stock availability are expected to continue to disrupt global smartphone sales in 2022, Gartner indicated.

The latest IDC research report said the pent-up demand for smartphones will drive the market toward healthy growth in 2022 as channel inventory is low in almost all regions and as supply constraints ease up towards the middle of the year.