The global microwave transmission market will achieve significant growth in coming years, thanks to the expansive 5G buildouts witnessed in 2021, which has since been characterized by a consistent pace of expansion, Dell’Oro Group said in a report.
The forecast indicates an extension of this growth cycle for a minimum of two additional years, resulting in a five-year upswing in the microwave transmission market. During this period, the microwave transmission market is anticipated to witness 22 percent annual revenue increase, culminating in cumulative revenue of nearly $17 billion. Several factors contribute to these optimistic projections, including:
Sustained customer demand for increased bandwidth, driving the need for higher link capacities and an anticipated surge in the adoption of E/V Band systems.
The projected rise in the number of carriers per cell site.
Moreover, there will be a recovery in revenue for the European market after a notable decline in 2022 and 2023, attributed to the Russia/Ukraine war, adverse currency exchange rates, and macroeconomic uncertainties. Additionally, India’s strategic investments in microwave transmission during 2023 are highlighted, with a subsequent expectation of reduced spending in 2024 following an initial strong push in rolling out 5G.
The global push for broadband Internet expansion into rural areas, propelled by government initiatives worldwide, is identified as a key driver stimulating additional demand for microwave systems beyond mobile backhaul, Dell’Oro Group said in its “Microwave Transmission & Mobile Backhaul Transport Five-Year Forecast” report, covering the period from 2023 to 2028.
However, the report does not shy away from addressing challenges in the market. Acknowledging the cyclical nature of the microwave transmission market, it predicts a contraction or decline in revenues following the five years of expansion. The revenues are expected to trend lower until the initiation of the next growth cycle ushered in by 6G technology.
Furthermore, the report emphasizes that, akin to previous mobile generations, operators will prioritize installing new 6G sites with fiber connections before turning to sites relying on wireless systems for backhaul. Consequently, the next growth cycle for microwave transmission may not materialize until 2030, potentially leading to a corresponding five-year period of market contraction.