Karl Horne, CTO Asia Pacific of Ciena, outlines his predictions for networking trends likely to emerge in 2017.
2016 was marked by another surge in bandwidth demand for network providers. The increasing popularity of bandwidth-rich consumer services such as on-demand local TV and Netflix as well as the continued move from on-premises to cloud-based services in the enterprise sector are just a few of the drivers for more capacity.
In 2017 and beyond, the bandwidth pressure on our networks will continue. For instance, IP traffic in Asia Pacific is expected to reach 43.4 Exabytes per month by 2017, at a CAGR of 26 percent. To put this into perspective, the journal, Science, calculated that the amount of information stored globally in 2007 was 295 exabytes.
Amid this increasing appetite for data and capacity, the following key trends will dominate the sector over the next year:
Network Virtualization will continue to mature. Many service providers have moved beyond the market exploration phase of network virtualization and are engaging in fully-funded projects. This is particularly true of Wide Area Network (WAN) deployments, where we are seeing evidence of productized automation and Application Programming Interface (API)-driven activity.
During 2017, we expect to see service providers rethink how they build their networks, leveraging the ‘open’ vendor ecosystems enabled by software-defined networking (SDN) and virtualization. Already, cloud-based services are starting to use Network Function Virtualization (NFV) for data centre-based managed services and network functions, with SD-WAN leading the charge. Over the next 12 months, orchestration solutions will gain attention, while Network as a Service will increasingly be linked to service platforms for mobility, cloud services, content and media services.
Programmable networks will take center stage. Software is now king, and its first order of business is to open networks and break down the limitations of proprietary and box-centric infrastructures; giving network operators the opportunity to make the network more flexible through programmability. As cloud computing, Virtual Reality, IoT and other technology trends increasingly require dynamic bandwidth placement, this programmability will prove crucial.
2017 will therefore be the year smart, ‘self-driving’ networks come into their own. These programmable networks will measure and monitor network performance and usage in real-time, adjusting automatically to network events to ensure the highest performance levels and best quality user experience. Largely removing the need for human intervention, programmable networks will radically reduce the costs associated with maintenance, and ongoing network evolution tasks, while enabling service providers to deliver the network quality required by today’s digital services.
IoT will open new opportunities for carriers. This year we’ll see carriers continue to face up to the challenges of digital disruption: avoiding service commoditization and building compelling digital services to compete with Over-The-Top players. Their efforts will focus on the opportunities on offer in the emerging IoT market, and as they launch IoT services and platforms, carriers will benefit from two core differentiators. First, they already own the network: the key piece of infrastructure needed to realize consumer IoT services. Second, carriers ‘own’ the customers as subscribers to their networks. As a result, we will see increased partnering and consolidation between carriers and cloud/content providers to enable the full Carrier Cloud ecosystem. Indeed, we are already seeing “co-opetition” models emerging in this space; Netflix, for example, is partnering with carriers to deliver its service in several countries.
5G will steal the spotlight. Factors such as the growth of M2M communications and the desire for faster, better performing mobile broadband are fuelling the development of 5G, particularly in the region’s developed economies. Architectural strategies for 5G are already progressing in advanced markets such as South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. Until now, the focus has been on developing spectrum and radio technologies to boost bandwidth capacity in the network.
It is likely carriers in Asia Pacific will use 2017 to continue readying their networks to cope with the increase in bandwidth rates that will come with 5G, with a focus on ensuring there is sufficient capacity in the mobile backhaul and core networks. For the former, carriers will need to leverage Ethernet rates from 1GbE to 100GbE (and 400GbE within a few years). Core network bandwidth growth will be addressed by leveraging coherent DWDM rates of 100G, 200G, and beyond. Exactly what 5G networks will look like remains open for debate, but by the end of 2017 we should have a much clearer idea.
Global connectivity will continue to fuel our digital economy. 2016 was an important year for global connectivity in the region, with several new submarine cable systems launched in November. In 2017 we can expect to see some other important developments in this space, such as Omantel Wholesale’s new cable system, which will connect the Gulf to Africa and Silk Road Gateway cable systems to enhance connectivity between Asia and Africa. Over the course of the next year, it is also likely that we will see a move toward open submarine networks.
Until recently submarine networks have remained proprietary turnkey network solutions, but as the advantages of open networks becomes more apparent this is likely to change. We will increasingly see cable operators choose vendor’s Submarine Line Terminating Equipment (SLTE) based on the best technology at the right cost points that addresses specific business requirements. From next year, it is likely we will see a move to standardize optical performance specifications, testing methodologies, and acceptance criteria before opening submarine cables to open-APIs and SDN technology.
Next year will mark another milestone for our industry and the end users we serve. Global connectivity will increase and networks will continue to evolve at pace to provide the open, software-defined flexibility and bandwidth-at-scale needed to support digital innovation. Disruptive digital consumer and businesses services will continue to change our world, and in the process, will transform the telecoms industry.
Karl Horne, CTO Asia Pacific, Ciena
