In August, Credit Suisse said its revised 2012 aggregate Capex forecast for AT&T and Verizon is as follows: 1) total Capex of about $35 billion, which represents a 2 percent year-over-year decline versus the 1 percent decrease in calendar 2011; 2) wireline Capex of about $15 billion, which represents a 10 percent year-over-year decline versus the 8 percent decline in calendar 2011; and 3) wireless Capex of about $20 billion, which represents a 6 percent year-over-year increase versus the 6 percent increase in calendar 2011.
According to the Credit Suisse note, it expects relatively flat growth in aggregate Capex at both AT&T and Verizon and for the larger community of carriers in developed markets, but a shift in Capex—as carriers undertake specific projects focused on revenue generation or cost savings such as wireless backhaul, cloud/data center build-outs, and extension of voice over Internet protocol (VoIP) infrastructure will benefit certain product markets and vendors while posing challenges to others.
Telecom infrastructure companies — Tellabs, Ditech Networks, Sonus Networks, Ciena, Adtran, Alcatel-Lucent, Westell Technologies, Acme Packet, Juniper Networks, F5 Networks and Cisco Systems — have exposure to AT&T.
Interestingly, both Huawei and ZTE, two Chinese telecom equipment makers, are not in this list. Recently, the US Intelligence Committee has requested government agencies to ban these two companies on account of security issues.
Baburajan K