Forecast on Indonesia’s mobile service revenue

Indonesia’s mobile service revenue is projected to experience minimal growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 0.3 percent, according to GlobalData.
Indonesia Mobile Broadband ForecastThe revenue of Indonesia’s mobile service market is expected to increase from $10.4 billion in 2022 to $10.6 billion in 2027. Despite steady progress in the mobile data service segment, the decline in mobile voice revenues outweighs the growth.

GlobalData’s Indonesia Mobile Broadband Forecast (Q1-2023) reveals that mobile voice service revenue will decline at a CAGR of 5.2 percent over the forecast period. This decline is attributed to the increasing preference among consumers for over-the-top (OTT) communication platforms, leading to a decrease in average revenue per user (ARPU) levels for voice services.

In contrast, mobile data service revenue in Indonesia is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 2.1 percent between 2022 and 2027. This growth is driven by the rising demand for mobile data services, the continued increase in smartphone subscriptions, and the projected rise in 5G subscriptions, which yield higher ARPU.

The average monthly data usage in Indonesia is expected to rise from 9.8GB in 2022 to 25.3GB in 2027. This increase is fueled by the growing consumption of online video and social media content on smartphones. It is also supported by the availability and adoption of 4G/5G services, as well as the data-centric packages offered by mobile network operators (MNOs).

4G will remain the dominant mobile technology in Indonesia in terms of subscriptions. This is due to the expansion of LTE networks by operators, particularly in underserved areas, as part of the government’s plan to provide 4G network access to all remote villages and sub-districts by 2023.

On the other hand, 5G subscriptions in Indonesia are projected to grow at the fastest rate and are expected to account for approximately 12 percent of total mobile subscriptions by the end of 2027. This growth is driven by ongoing expansions of 5G networks by operators.

Telkomsel is expected to maintain its leadership in the mobile services market in Indonesia until 2027. The company’s focus on 4G network development and expansion across the country, coupled with its customer acquisition strategies through omnichannel and social media, contribute to its position as the market leader in terms of subscriptions.