Forecast on mobile service revenue in Australia

The mobile service revenue in Australia is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9 percent and reach US$11 billion in 2026.
Forecast on Australia mobile service revenueHealthy growth in mobile data revenue will be driving the increase in service revenue in Australia during the forecast period, Aasif Iqbal, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, said.

The mobile voice service revenue is expected to increase at a CAGR of 2.2 percent between 2021 and 2026 as voice subscriptions continue to grow at a slow rate. Mobile data service revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.6 percent over the same period, driven by projected rise in the adoption of higher average revenue per user (ARPU)-5G subscriptions.

5G subscriptions’ share in Australia is expected to grow from 9.4 percent in 2021 to 30.9 percent in 2026, supported by 5G network expansions by all the three major operators i.e., Telstra, Optus and Vodafone Australia.

In April 2021, Australia’s telecom regulator The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) allocated spectrum in 26GHz band to deliver faster, high capacity 5G wireless broadband services.

ACMA plans to allocate low-band 5G spectrum (in the 850/900 MHz band) in the second half of the year for broader geographic coverage of 5G services. This is expected to pave way for the further evolution of 5G mobile services market in the country.

Telstra will lead the mobile services market in Australia in terms of subscriptions in 2021 and will retain its leading position through 2026, supported by its focus on 5G network expansion and modernization.

Telstra has extended 5G coverage to 75 percent of the population as of June 2021 and has further plans to invest AUD150m in mobile network upgrades until April 2022. The company also plans to switch-off 3G network by June 2024 to free up spectrum for 5G expansion.