Global telecom Capex is projected to decline at a 2 percent to 3 percent CAGR over the next 3 years, as positive growth in India will not be enough to offset sharp Capex cuts in North America, according to a recently published report from Dell’Oro Group.
Capital intensity ratios are projected to improve and approach 16 percent by 2025, hinging crucially on the assumption that carrier revenues will remain flat and outperform Capex.

Worldwide telecom Capex — the sum of wireless and wireline telecom carrier investments — increased at a low-single digit rate year-over-year in nominal USD terms in 2022, down from the high-single digit growth in 2021.

“The relation between service provider Capex and telecom equipment revenue is not perfect, partly because the equipment makes up roughly one third of the Capex,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President and analyst with Dell’Oro Group.