ITU has released global ICT trends and telecom regulatory outlook 2017.
Seven major trends moving ICT markets
ICTs move centre-stage as digital economy gains momentum
While mobile has grown, large populations have no access to the Internet. This looks set to change as a growing swathe of urban young in developing countries make new demands for future connectivity.
Mobile – the engine for expanded local access to the Internet
By 2017, three-quarters of all global Internet use will be via mobile and much of that growth will come in low and middle income countries. Significant gaps in penetration remain with more than half the world’s population yet to be connected to mobile broadband. Mobile virtual network operators have taken up this challenge, targeting under-served market niches and optimizing network coverage to grow subscriber bases. While fixed connectivity leverages ICT for increased productivity, outreach and efficiency, mobile is set to transform economic sectors.
ICTs are less visible but more prevalent
Cloud computing is the catalyst and enabler of important technological advances. Cloud transforms people’s data into an increasingly valuable by-product: today’s data trails produced by users using multiple ICTs are massive and growing, generating ‘big data’. A new culture of ‘dealing in data’ is beginning to take root.
ICTs are enabling and disrupting industries
ICT focus has shifted towards building platforms which integrate technologies, networks and devices powering new capabilities and services. 5G mobile broadband is being conceptually enhanced and is now poised to take the integration of communication protocols, devices and applications to the next level.
The rise of the app economy
App economy is transforming economic and social activities and opening up channels of innovation, productivity and communication. Technology design deployed by disruptive app companies reduces transaction costs while allowing for increasing economies of scale. The outlook for both network operators and over-the-top providers is bright as they benefit from a virtuous cycle: as the ICT sector outgrows all others, innovation continues to power ahead creating yet more opportunity.
Market concentration and consolidation
The past decade has seen ICT in constant flux – new players, services and delivery platforms have stretched boundaries and changed market dynamics. Led by innovation, digitization and automation, new competitors have gate-crashed markets around the world. In 2016, high-profile mergers and acquisitions swept the ICT landscape, featuring a wide range of market players and deals, from fibre to cloud to artificial intelligence. In some cases, players from the extended ICT sector are opting for strategic partnerships or ‘coopetition’.
Cyber threats have grown in scope and scale
Massive digitization in consumer and corporate life has brought increased risk. The level of threat has grown as the tools in the hands of criminals and terrorists have become more sophisticated. Though cyber readiness has become paramount for building secure ICT networks and services, not all countries are prepared.
7 major trends that characterize the regulatory landscape
Collaboration – fast-tracking the promise of the digital economy
With the growing economic confidence of ICTs and related markets has come a new regulatory assertiveness embodied in the G5 collaborative regulation approach. Increasingly, ICT regulators are teaming with regulators from other sectors to address multisector issues. Equipped with this collaborative, problem-solving attitude, regulators are better harnessing and maintaining buoyant growth.
Regulatory landscape continuing to see rapid and fundamental change
ICT sector cannot remain narrowly focused on its own players and issues –because convergence has blurred boundaries and complicated the rules of the game. The pace of regulation in the ICT sector is faster than in most other industries today, with transformation happening all the time.
Many countries expand scope of regulatory policies
No fewer than 52 regulators are now in the G4 category. 55 percent of countries moved one generation up the ICT ladder of regulation while 15 percent have leaped generations in only nine years. In contrast, one-quarter of countries have seen no regulatory movement since 2007.
Regulation as an equalizer
Regulation ensures that all market players – from start-ups to national incumbents to multinational corporations – benefit from a level playing field. Competition is essential in spurring innovation, diversifying services on offer and improving consumer experience in ICT markets. The regulation of that competition continues to trigger a massive opening up of ICT markets, from basic telephony services to mobile broadband.
Focus moves to monitoring and enforcement
The scope of monitoring and enforcement continues to widen. In 2015-16, challenging issues – including taxation of players without national physical points of presence and the poor quality of information being shared over social media – have sparked passionate global debate.
One model does not fit all
A single ICT regulatory model that fits all does not exist. Points of convergence are emerging, driven by factors such as efficiency, extended access to networks, affordability and quality of service. New issues are constantly emerging, posing challenges for regulators. Some challenges require collective action from the international community while others will disrupt the market order.
Regulators are standing up to challenges, reinventing the rules
Expectations of ICT regulation have grown. No fewer than 43 countries conduct a Regulatory Impact Assessment before regulatory decisions are made. Incentive regulation is sometimes included to encourage investment, especially in infrastructure.
