GlobalData’s forecast reveals promising growth in New Zealand’s mobile service revenue, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1 percent from $1.6 billion in 2023 to $1.7 billion in 2028. This surge in New Zealand’s mobile service revenue is predominantly propelled by the mobile data service segment.
The forecast, outlined in GlobalData’s New Zealand Mobile Broadband Forecast (Q3-2023), anticipates a contrasting trajectory for mobile voice service revenue in New Zealand. Mobile voice service revenue in New Zealand is expected to decline at a 2.7 percent CAGR due to the rising consumer preference for internet-based communication services, leading to a decrease in voice service average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.
However, mobile data service revenue in New Zealand is set to experience significant growth, estimated to increase at a CAGR of 4.2 percent between 2023 and 2028. This uptick in mobile data service revenue in New Zealand is attributed to increased consumption of mobile data services on 4G/5G networks, a continuous surge in smartphone subscriptions, and the projected rise in higher-ARPU yielding 5G subscriptions.
Hrushikesh Mahananda, Telecom Research Analyst at GlobalData, emphasized that the average monthly data usage in New Zealand is forecasted to rise from 6.5GB in 2023 to 12.2GB in 2028. This surge is propelled by heightened consumption of online video and social media content on smartphones, facilitated by the growing availability and adoption of 4G/5G services and data-centric packages offered by Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) in New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that 4G will maintain its position as the dominant mobile technology in terms of subscriptions through 2028 in New Zealand. This is primarily driven by operators’ continued upgrades and expansions of their LTE networks.
However, 5G subscriptions in New Zealand are expected to witness the fastest growth rate, projected to secure approximately 32 percent of the total mobile subscriptions by the end of 2028. This growth is fueled by ongoing investments and expansions in 5G networks by operators.
One New Zealand, formerly known as Vodafone New Zealand, is poised to lead the mobile services market in subscriptions through 2028. The operator’s robust focus on 4G and 5G network advancements and expansions across the country positions it prominently. Additionally, the operator is strategically eyeing Machine-to-Machine (M2M) and Internet of Things (IoT) opportunities, with plans to cover up to 60 percent of the geographic area with NB-IoT network by 2024.