Coherent 100G port shipments for metro regional optical networks is expected to grow 118 percent in 2015 against 145 percent growth in 2014, said IHS.
The adoption of 100G coherent technology has surged, first in long haul networks and now becoming a material part of metro networks.
Andrew Schmitt, research director for carrier transport networking at HIS, said: “100G is poised to explode in 2016 as new equipment built specifically for the metro reaches the market, allowing 100G technology to economically reach new portions of the network such as metro edge and metro regional.”
2014 was a banner year for 100G port shipments, led by massive purchases in China from China Mobile.
Most of 100G coherent technology deployed in 2014 was for long haul applications, but metro regional (<600km) and metro access (<80km) applications will start ramping in 2016.
100G market share is concentrated in a small circle of players: Alcatel-Lucent, Ciena, Huawei, Infinera and ZTE; the only potential catalyst for shifts will come from deployment in shorter reach metro and datacenter applications—the next growth vector for 100G.
Sometime in 2017–2018, 100G coherent will make another quantum jump, displacing 10G in the 80km or less metro-access market.