Telecom network maker Ericsson leads the mmWave RAN market in 2021 – ahead of rivals such as Huawei, ZTE, Nokia, Samsung, etc., according to Dell’Oro Group.
The mismatch between Capex and data consumption when comparing the sub-6 GHz and mmWave spectrum will evolve gradually over time – global 5G NR mmWave revenues are projected to reach $1 billion to $2 billion by 2026, said Dell’Oro Group VP RAN Analyst Stefan Pongratz.
Mobile remains the primary focus, however, gNB and repeater technology advancements are expected to improve the FWA business case.
While mmWave NR investments have for the most part surprised on the upside relative to the expectations outlined three to four years ago, mmWave RAN revenues were weaker than what we outlined going into the year. Still, we are not concerned about the slowdown and the implications for the long-term business case and see this more as a short-term calibration reflecting the fact that the sub-6 GHz spectrum still provides the most compelling RAN economics.
Preliminary findings suggest 5G NR mmWave investments improved in the fourth quarter of 2021 but this was not enough to change the full-year growth momentum. Following two years of exponential growth, mmWave revenues increased 15 percent to 20 percent in 2021, propelling 5G NR mmWave to account for 1 percent to 2 percent of total sub 6 GHz plus mmWave RAN revenues.