FTTx optical components revenue will exceed $1 billion in 2015 from $953 million in 2014 – driven by demand for PON equipment – both OLTs and ONTs.
Factors including FTTH network deployments by China Mobile and the continued network builds by China Telecom and China Unicom are driving the FTTx optics market to new levels, said Ovum.
FTTx network deployments by North American MSOs, Google Fiber’s expansion plan, deployment plans by US telecoms and Europe, deployments in the Middle East, small deployments in South and Central America and Africa, and the movement toward FTTP or FTTH are also the growth factors.
Total OLT transceivers are forecast to grow 19 percent to 6.5 million in 2015.
Next-gen OLT transceivers are forecast to represent just over 12 percent of the total OLT transceiver market in 2020, with 10G EPON OLTs representing the largest segment within next-gen PON.
The total ONT transceiver/BOSA market is forecast to increase 18 percent to exceed 71 million in 2015.
Next-gen ONT transceivers/BOSAs are forecast to represent just over 9 percent of the total ONT transceiver/BOSA market in 2020 with 10/1 and 10/10 EPON ONTs representing the largest segment within next-gen PON.
Ovum’s PON optical components forecast does not include large FTTx deployments in the heavily populated countries of India, Brazil, and Indonesia.
Large deployments in these countries would provide a significant uptick to the units forecast and consequently to revenues as would faster deployments of next-gen PON because the ASPs for next-gen PON optics are higher than those for non-next-gen.
China is the single largest consumer of PON optics in the world and any slowdown would negatively impact the forecast. China’s newest operator entrant into FTTx, China Mobile, is well positioned to deploy an FTTx network, bring existing mobile customers onto its new wireline broadband network, and offer additional services.