Handset sales are expected to grow from 1.88 billion in 2014 to 2.16 billion units in 2020 — at a compound annual growth (CAGR) rate of 2.4 percent, said Ovum.
Smartphones will comprise 95 percent of handset sales by 2020 against 65 percent in 2014. Sales of smartphones will exceed 2 billion unit sales in 2020.
Android will have 80 percent and iOS will have 14 percent smartphone market share in 2020, almost identical to 2014.
Handsets based on Microsoft’s Windows Phone OS will capture most of the remaining market with a 4.2 percent market share in 2020, equivalent to 86 million unit sales.
Smartphone market in Africa and the Middle East will have a CAGR of 17 percent. Latin American smartphone market will grow at 11 percent CAGR.
Smartphone market in Africa and the Middle East and Latin America will have 576 million units sales by 2020 against 254 million in 2014.
In Asia Pacific, the Chinese market is reaching saturation with an expected CAGR of only 4.1 percent in the next six years, versus 19.7 percent for India and 16.3 percent for Indonesia. North America and Western Europe will be trailing behind with a CAGR of only 2 percent in the next six years.
The sale of sub-$100 devices will represent more than 40 percent of global smartphone sales by 2020 as compared with 13 percent in 2014.
Between Q4 2013 and Q4 2014, the median price of prepaid and SIM-free smartphones fell 28 percent to $258 from $360.