Internet users to reach 4.1 bn by 2020 from 3 bn in 2015: Cisco VNI

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The number of Internet users will reach 4.1 billion by 2020 from 3 billion in 2015, according to the Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Complete Forecast for 2015 to 2020.

Broadband speeds will nearly double from 24.7 Mbps in 2015 to 47.7 Mbps by 2020.

The IP traffic will nearly triple at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22 percent over the next five years, indicating about the requirement for substantial Capex (capital expenditure) in telecom networks.

IP networks will support 26.3 billion devices and connections by 2020 against 16.3 billion in 2015. There will be 3.4 devices and connections per capita by 2020 — up from 2.2 per capita in 2015, said Cisco VNI.

Internet of Things (IoT) will continue to drive IP traffic globally. Applications such as video surveillance, smart meters, digital health monitors and a host of other M2M services are creating new network requirements and incremental traffic increases.

M2M connections will grow nearly 3-fold from 4.9 billion in 2015 to 12.2 billion by 2020, representing 46 percent of total connected devices.

The connected health consumer segment will have 5-fold growth in M2M connections from 144 million in 2015 to 729 million in 2020. The number of M2M connections in the connected home segment will be growing to 5.8 billion by 2020 from 2.4 billion in 2015 — nearly half of all M2M connections.

Internet video will account for 79 percent of Internet traffic by 2020 against 63 percent in 2015. The world will use 3 trillion Internet video minutes per month by 2020, which is five million years of video per month, or about one million video minutes every second. HD and Ultra HD Internet video will make up 82 percent of Internet video traffic by 2020 — up from 53 percent in 2015.

The DDoS (Distributed Denial of Service) breaches can represent up to 10 percent of a country’s total Internet traffic while they are occurring. DDoS attacks are projected to increase from 6.6 million to 17 million attacks over the next five years.

IP traffic is expected to reach 194.4 exabytes per month by 2020 against 72.5 exabytes per month in 2015. The global annual run rate will reach 2.3 zettabytes by 2020 — up from 870 exabytes in 2015.

Busy-hour Internet traffic will grow 4.7-fold from 2015 to 2020, reaching 2.6 Pbps by 2020, compared with average Internet traffic that will grow three-fold over the same period reaching.

Regional IP Traffic Growth Details

APAC: 67.8 exabytes/month by 2020, 22 percent CAGR, 3-fold growth

North America: 59.1 exabytes/month by 2020, 19 percent CAGR, 2-fold growth

Western Europe: 28.0 exabytes/month by 2020, 20 percent CAGR, 2-fold growth

Central Europe: 17.0 exabytes/month by 2020, 27 percent CAGR, 3-fold growth

Latin America: 11.6 exabytes/month by 2020, 21 percent CAGR, 2-fold growth

Middle East and Africa: 10.9 exabytes/month by 2020, 41 percent CAGR, 6-fold growth


Smartphone Traffic Will Surpass PC Traffic

By 2020, 71 percent of total IP traffic will originate with non-PC devices including tablets, smartphones, and televisions, compared to 47 percent in 2015.

By 2020, smartphones will generate 30 percent of total IP traffic, while PC’s total IP traffic contribution will fall to 29 percent.

Internet video will increase four-fold between 2015 and 2020.

Consumer Internet video traffic will be 82 percent of consumer Internet traffic by 2020 against 68 percent in 2015.

Business Internet video traffic will be 66 percent of business Internet traffic by 2020 against 44 percent in 2015.

Video surveillance traffic nearly doubled in the past year and will grow 10-fold by 2020.

Virtual reality traffic quadrupled in the past year and will increase 61-fold by 2020.

Mobile location-based service (LBS) will be the fastest growing consumer mobile service, growing from 807 million users in 2015 to over 2.3 billion users by 2020.

Desktop /personal videoconferencing will be the fastest growing business Internet service, growing from 95 million users in 2015 to 248 million users by 2020.

Public Wi-Fi hotspots including home spots will grow 7X from 2015 (64 million) to 2020 (432 million).

Globally, home spots will grow from 57 million (2015) to 423 million by 2020.

In 2015, Wi-Fi and mobile-connected devices generated 62 percent of Internet traffic (Wi-Fi: 55 percent; cellular: 7 percent; fixed: 38 percent). By 2020, Wi-Fi and mobile-connected devices will generate 78 percent of Internet traffic (Wi-Fi: 59 percent; cellular: 19 percent; fixed: 22 percent), according to Cisco VNI.