Global RAN is projected to grow at a 2 percent CAGR between 2020 and 2030, following the 1 percent CAGR between 2000 and 2020, according to Dell’Oro Group.
Fixed Wireless Access is already boosting the RAN market and enterprises are next.
“In this long-term forecast, the base case scenario is that the 5G cycle will be longer than LTE investment phase, while 6G will start accelerating in the outer part of the forecast period to support the consumer MBB usage scenarios, closely emulating the 5G ramp ten years prior with wide-band sub-7 GHz macros delivering the most compelling RAN economics,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group.
Sub-7 GHz 6G revenues are expected to reach $10 billion to $20 billion by 2030.
Operators and enterprises will use the movement towards virtualization, openness, and automation. At the same time, the RAN is not the core and the transition will be gradual. Even with 6G, a significant portion of the RAN market will be based on custom silicon and proprietary interfaces – Open RAN is projected to account for more than 20 percent of total RAN by the end of the forecast period.
Though private LTE / 5G adoption has been underwhelming, there will be a world in which enterprises utilize both the unlicensed and licensed spectrums to solve their connectivity needs. Private wireless RAN revenues are projected to approach $2 billion by 2030.