Sales of broadband access equipment are poised to experience a slight decline of 1 percent in the year 2024, according to Dell’Oro Group, a leading market research firm. The initial half of the year is anticipated to witness persistent weakness in this sector, although an upturn in spending is predicted for the latter part of the year.
The resurgence in the broadband equipment market is attributed to several factors, including ongoing subsidization efforts, a transition from copper to fiber technology, and the implementation of cable distributed access architectures.
According to Jeff Heynen, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group, while inventory adjustments observed in 2023 are anticipated to persist into the first half of 2024, the latter half of the year is anticipated to mark a pivotal moment ushering in renewed growth.
“Service providers remain committed to expanding their fiber footprint, enhancing the bandwidth available to their clientele, and bolstering the reliability of broadband services by deploying intelligence closer to end-users,” Jeff Heynen said.
The forecast indicates a promising trajectory for various segments within the broadband equipment market.
Specifically, revenue from passive optical network (PON) equipment is forecasted to increase from $10.8 billion in 2023 to $11.8 billion in 2028, predominantly driven by XGS-PON deployments across North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), and the Caribbean and Latin America (CALA) regions, alongside early 50 Gbps deployments in China.
Additionally, revenue for Cable Distributed Access Equipment, encompassing Virtual CCAP, Remote PHY Devices, Remote MACPHY Devices, and Remote OLTs, is anticipated to soar to $1.3 billion by 2028, fueled by operators’ continued adoption of DOCSIS 4.0 standards and initial fiber rollouts.
The projection also foresees a significant uptick in revenue for Fixed Wireless CPE, expected to reach $2.5 billion by 2028, driven by the proliferation of 5G sub-6GHz shipments and an increasing number of 5G Millimeter Wave units.
Moreover, revenue for Wi-Fi 7 residential routers and broadband CPE with WLAN capabilities is anticipated to surge to $9.3 billion by 2028, reflecting rapid adoption by both consumers and service providers.