Revenues from Open RAN (Radio Access Network) are slated to experience a decline in 2023, recent analysis from Dell’Oro Group indicates.
Despite prevailing market challenges in the near term, the long-term forecast for Open RAN remains optimistic, with projections indicating that Open RAN will constitute 20 percent to 30 percent of worldwide RAN revenues by 2028, a significant increase from the 7 percent to 10 percent projected for 2024.
“Current growth deceleration, coupled with the acknowledgment that Open RAN is not a panacea that will radically transform entry barriers or overall market concentration, has sparked inquiries into the rationale behind Open RAN,” Stefan Pongratz, Vice President and Analyst at Dell’Oro Group, said in a news statement.
Stefan Pongratz emphasized that while certain assumptions underpinning the role of Open RAN in the RAN landscape remain unchanged, operators are expected to gradually integrate more virtualization, intelligence, automation, and O-RAN components into their RAN strategies. However, Stefan Pongratz noted that the business case for multi-vendor RAN deployments is becoming less compelling.
Despite the downward revision of Open RAN revenues in the near term, the forecast has been adjusted upward for the later part of the period, reflecting an improved pipeline particularly in the United States.
North America, despite facing challenges in 2023, is anticipated to lead the Open RAN market throughout the forecast period. Meanwhile, Europe, after a sluggish start, is forecasted to nearly double its share of Open RAN revenue between 2023 and 2028, the repot said.
The analysis also indicates that the balance between multi- and single-vendor RAN deployments is expected to remain largely unchanged. Single-vendor Open RAN solutions are anticipated to dominate the market, with multi-vendor deployments projected to account for 5 percent to 10 percent of total RAN revenues by 2028.